$529 million was bet on when the bombs would fall. Now, as war enters its third day, another $15 million rides on what comes next: Iran's next leader, the Strait of Hormuz, and who will be first to touch down in Tehran. As U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls off his Monday visit to Israel, bombs continue to fly across the Middle East and into the Mediterranean, with targets ranging from Cyprus to Bahrain. Iran's declaration of all-out war has driven Brent crude to $79 a barrel — up 9% since strikes began — while Polymarket now gives a 67% chance Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz before year's end, up from 48% just 24 hours ago.
Who runs Iran next?
Khamenei's death has triggered the first succession crisis in the Islamic Republic's history. The Assembly of Experts must now choose a new Supreme Leader — a process that has never happened before. Traders are pricing a 77% chance someone is named by March 31, with Alireza Arafi currently the front-runner at 20%.
Who enters Tehran first?
With Iranian airspace partially closed and the regime in flux, the question of who will be first to land in Tehran has become one of the most-watched markets of the conflict. Reza Pahlavi — son of the last Shah, long exiled in the United States — is among the names traders are watching, with a 37% chance he enters Iran by December 31.