Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Geneva on Sunday, where a second round of indirect nuclear talks with the United States begins on Tuesday. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are leading the American delegation. Oman is mediating. Switzerland is hosting.
Hours before his arrival, Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes. The timing was not subtle.
As of Sunday evening, Polymarket traders give a 37.5% probability that the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026. The market has attracted nearly $270 million in cumulative volume across multiple time horizons, making it one of the largest geopolitical bets on the platform.
The term structure
The timeline markets show how traders expect this to unfold (as of February 16). By February 28: 17.5%. By March 31: 37.5%. By June 30: 48.5%. The near-term odds more than double between February and March, then flatten. Traders see March as the inflection point.
Daily resolution markets show sensitivity to news cycles. The day-specific "US next strikes Iran on" market prices dates around and after Tuesday's talks at low single digits, but they cluster rather than scatter. The market expects a catalytic event, not a random one.
Positions that are not close
The first round took place in Muscat, Oman, on February 6. Iran's position: it will dilute its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium — over 400 kilograms, last inspected by the IAEA in June 2025 before Iran suspended cooperation — if all sanctions are lifted. "I am in Geneva with real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal," Araghchi wrote on X. "What is not on the table: submission before threats."
The American position: zero enrichment, no exceptions. Reports that the US proposed a three-to-five-year enrichment pause and removal of 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium were denied by US officials. The administration wants talks broadened beyond nuclear to include ballistic missiles and regional proxies. Iran refuses.
On Friday, Trump said at Fort Bragg that a change in power in Iran "would be the best thing that could happen." On Sunday, Rubio said in Bratislava that the president "prefers a negotiated settlement." The distance between those two statements is the distance the market is trying to price.
The shadow of June 2025
These talks are not happening in peacetime. Last June, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a 12-day air campaign beginning June 13. Dozens of fighter jets struck targets across Iran, including nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan.
In the early hours of June 22, the US followed with Operation Midnight Hammer. Seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers dropped 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators — each weighing 30,000 pounds — on Fordow and Natanz. Submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles struck Isfahan.
Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, estimated at several thousand before the conflict, was heavily depleted. Israeli intelligence estimates Tehran has rebuilt to between 1,800 and 2,000 missiles as of early 2026. The USS Gerald Ford has been ordered from the Caribbean to the Middle East, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln already in the region.
The Khamenei question
A separate market asks whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei leaves power by March 31. As of Sunday evening it trades at 15.5%, with nearly $13 million in volume. A January 31 version of the same bet attracted $49.7 million before resolving No. Iranian state media continues to publish Khamenei's public schedule. The market prices regime fragility, not confirmed intelligence.
What to watch on Tuesday
The market will move on any signal from Geneva. A framework announcement compresses strike odds. A breakdown — or reporting on new US military positioning — pushes them higher. Rubio's framing in Bratislava on Sunday that Trump "prefers a negotiated settlement" gave dovish signals, but the IRGC's Hormuz exercises today suggest Tehran is hedging too.
Two carrier groups, IRGC war games in the world's most important oil chokepoint, nearly $270 million in prediction market volume, and the foreign minister of a country the US bombed eight months ago sitting across from American envoys in the same Swiss city. The talks begin Tuesday.